Lake Central
Boys - Girls
2015 - 2016 - 2017
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State Rank #24
New Prairie Semi-State Rank #6
Crown Point Regional Rank #3
Gavit Sectional Rank #3
Most Likely Finish 18th place at State Finals
State Champion 0.0%
Top 5 at State Finals 0.0%
Top 10 at State Finals 1.8%
Advance to State Finals 64.2%
Advance to Semi-State 100.0%
Advance to Regional 100.0%


All times are adjusted ratings, which are calculated based on time relative to other runners in race.
Team Adjusted Rating is the team rating with runners missing from that race added back in.
Cells with NEI means there was not enough info to calculate adjusted ranking for that race.



Season Rating Jack Bransford Classic Harrison Invitational Bob Thomas Invitational New Prairie Invitational Culver Academies Invitational Duneland Athletic Conference Gavit Sectional Crown Point Regional New Prairie Semi-State State Finals
Date 8/20 9/3 9/10 9/17 9/24 10/1 10/8 10/15 10/22 10/29
Team Rating 390 413 409 411 382 346 417 353 420
Team Adjusted Rating 413 409 411 382 346 417 353 420
State RankRunnerSeason Rating Jack Bransford Classic Harrison Invitational Bob Thomas Invitational New Prairie Invitational Culver Academies Invitational Duneland Athletic Conference Gavit Sectional Crown Point Regional New Prairie Semi-State State Finals
61  Joey Copeland 11 16:25 16:41 16:16 16:23 16:26 16:32 16:08 16:35 16:28 16:26 16:25
130  Mitch Polaski 11 16:42 17:03 16:46 16:54 16:34 16:32 16:27 16:53 16:37 16:45
157  Billy Duszynski 11 16:48 17:37 17:05 16:44 16:51 16:50 16:49 16:36 16:33 16:57
244  Isaac Beatty 10 17:05 16:47 16:36 16:47 17:27 16:57 17:13 17:16 16:59 17:31
549  Josh Chen 9 17:42 18:09 17:49 17:47 17:45 17:24 17:34 17:31 17:47
667  Matt Blair 12 17:52 17:42 18:05 17:45 18:05 18:04 17:29 17:52
859  Aaron Balka 12 18:07 17:40 18:14 18:14 17:43 18:01 18:24 18:25
881  Nathan Previs 11 18:09 18:18 18:10 18:07 17:51 17:57 18:28 18:18
1,047  Andrew Ackerman 12 18:21 18:27 18:44 18:15 18:10
1,056  Ryan West 12 18:22 18:40 17:59 18:18 18:36 18:21
1,117  Carter Goldman 10 18:26 17:59 18:24 18:54
1,183  Jack Tinsley 10 18:31 18:14 18:15 18:31 18:41 18:47
1,255  Ben Watta 10 18:35 18:27 18:31 18:30 18:36 18:53
1,476  Cayden Cooper 9 18:53 18:34 18:36 19:31 19:03 18:48
1,480  Alex Miller-Swain 9 18:53 18:55 18:51 18:36 18:45 19:50
1,492  Conrad Prisby 9 18:55 19:21 18:55 19:09 18:52 18:31
Joe Brown 10 19:10 20:00 19:03 19:06 18:43 19:30




IHSAA Tournament Simulation


Based on results of 10,000 simulations of the IHSAA Tournament. Numbers in tables represent percentage of times each outcome occured during simulation.




Team Results

Advances to RoundAvg FinishAvg Score Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24
State Finals 64.2% 17.6 424 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.7 1.3 2.2 2.7 3.4 4.9 6.0 6.9 7.5 7.1 7.3 5.6 4.4 2.3 0.8
Semi-State 100% 5.8 187 0.1 2.2 12.2 16.2 17.5 16.1 13.4 9.9 6.2 3.9 1.9 0.6 0.0
Regionals 100% 2.7 63 0.2 31.4 68.3 0.0
Sectionals 100% 1.0 20 99.9 0.1



Individual Results


Indv No Team: Chance of running in round if team did not advance.
Indv: Chance of being in position to advance to round regardless of whether the team advanced.


State MeetAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Joey Copeland 89.2% 63.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 0.5 69.9% 86.0%
Mitch Polaski 66.2% 98.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5.5% 29.6%
Billy Duszynski 64.5% 113.0 0.0 0.8% 13.9%
Isaac Beatty 64.2% 143.6 0.0% 0.7%
Josh Chen 64.2% 186.8 0.0% 0.0%
Matt Blair 64.2% 194.2 0.0% 0.0%
Aaron Balka 64.2% 201.9 0.0% 0.0%


Semi-StateAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Joey Copeland 100% 13.3 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.2 1.9 2.8 3.9 4.9 5.3 6.0 7.3 7.0 6.8 6.7 6.5 5.0 4.6 4.1 4.1 3.2 3.2 2.2 2.2 1.6 1.4 100.0%
Mitch Polaski 100% 26.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.9 0.9 1.6 1.9 2.4 2.4 2.9 3.3 3.3 3.4 3.9 4.2 4.3 4.5 4.1 100.0%
Billy Duszynski 100% 32.8 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.6 1.0 1.1 1.3 1.6 1.7 1.6 2.0 2.3 2.5 2.8 3.1 100.0%
Isaac Beatty 100% 51.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 100.0%
Josh Chen 100% 97.1 98.0%
Matt Blair 100% 114.2 89.0%
Aaron Balka 100% 135.4 49.4%


RegionalsAdvances to RoundAvg Finish Finishing Place Indv No TeamIndv
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Joey Copeland 100% 4.4 0.6 2.4 11.2 22.5 30.6 22.4 5.9 2.5 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Mitch Polaski 100% 7.1 0.0 0.2 1.0 4.8 14.5 27.7 16.6 11.6 8.4 5.7 3.9 2.7 1.5 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Billy Duszynski 100% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 4.5 12.7 20.6 14.2 12.3 10.8 7.6 5.8 4.3 2.7 1.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Isaac Beatty 100% 14.2 0.1 0.3 1.1 4.4 5.3 6.9 8.8 9.6 10.8 11.9 11.1 10.0 8.5 5.2 2.6 1.7 0.8 0.5 0.3 0.1 100.0%
Josh Chen 100% 25.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.3 4.2 5.6 6.7 7.9 8.8 8.3 100.0%
Matt Blair 100% 30.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 1.0 1.8 2.7 3.4 4.7 100.0%
Aaron Balka 100% 38.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 100.0%


SectionalsAvg Finish Finishing Place
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 17 18 19 20 21 22 23 24 25
Joey Copeland 1.0 96.3 3.6 0.2
Mitch Polaski 1.7 3.3 70.8 24.7 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Billy Duszynski 2.4 0.4 24.5 68.1 6.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Isaac Beatty 3.7 0.3 3.7 68.2 20.5 4.5 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Josh Chen 8.9 3.3 10.1 10.5 13.1 15.2 13.7 11.1 7.8 5.6 3.7 2.3 1.6 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Matt Blair 11.8 0.3 1.3 3.1 5.3 7.7 10.5 11.7 12.4 10.9 9.4 8.2 6.4 4.6 3.4 2.3 1.3 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Aaron Balka 17.2 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.0 2.6 4.1 5.7 6.7 7.7 8.8 10.2 10.8 10.9 10.7 8.0 5.8 3.5 1.7 0.7